Not long ago, having access to the budget or reporting leaks prompted a visit by the RCMP. Today, budget leaks have been elevated to an art form. So as we await next Monday's budget - Paul Martin's seventh effort - a closer analysis of the more credible leaks is warranted.

Tax Relief: If the leaks are to be believed, Mr. Martin will allow Canadians to keep a five-year cumulative sum of $45 billion of their money in their pockets due to tax reduction measures. Sounds great, but a reality check is in order.

If the Finance Minister doesn't re-index the tax system for inflation, thereby ending bracket creep (which the CTF and 20 other national organizations have advocated), the real effect of the tax cuts will be closer to $30 billion, according to the Bank of Montreal. Then the net effect of payroll tax increases (EI reductions vs. CPP increases) must be factored in. And we shouldn't forget that the government will probably try to pass off spending increases as tax relief.

Other measures could include action on RRSP foreign content front, potential reductions to the 5% federal surtax and a $1,000 increase in the basic personal exemption.

The bottom line is that the real tax relief over five years will be in the neighbourhood of $20 to $25 billion, not $45 billion. This is a good start, but we'll be looking for more in future budgets. Note, the first two years of tax cut measures are guaranteed, the final three will be dependent on the attainment of surplus revenue projections, and, oh-yeah, re-election of the Liberals.

Debt Reduction: If you're looking for a legislated schedule of annual debt reduction payments (like we are) instead of the government's soft approach of simply reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, you'll be disappointed. Martin will talk about extra prudence, blah, blah, blah, but it will be another budget or two or a new and different government before a concrete plan to reduce our $576.8 billion national debt is unveiled.

Spending: This is the budget wildcard. Leaks already indicate that National Defence and medical research initiatives are slated for funding increases. Fair enough, there is a large national constituency which understands the importance of both these areas.
Where things get murky is in the world of infrastructure funding. Some leaks point to a road and highway improvement program. If this infrastructure spending is targeted to our national highway system, fine.

But if the feds have designs on another shared cost program, like Infrastructure Works Phase 3, for example, no thank you. We already have more than enough bocci ball courts and canoe museums to last us for generations.

And the HRDC boondoggle scandal works to the advantage of taxpayers.

Canadians have absolutely no appetite whatsoever for new mega-spending initiatives. Whether it be HRDC or CIDA, revelations throughout the last month have proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that the feds are fundamentally inept and ill-equipped to responsibly administer taxpayers' dollars.

While HRDC and CIDA have been in the forefront, departments like Industry Canada, Indian Affairs, Public Works and Canadian Heritage are just as incompetent as HRDC when it comes to managing our dollars. Big-ticket initiatives for any of these departments will quickly erode the goodwill that arises from the anticipated tax relief measures.

We also hope that Ottawa discontinues its practice of hiding the surplus by back-end loading spending into the current fiscal year. The main focus for Monday should be tax relief. We'll soon see if Mr. Martin agrees.